Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitebsk win with a probability of 38.14%. A win for Dnepr Mogilev had a probability of 35.88% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitebsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest Dnepr Mogilev win was 0-1 (9.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitebsk would win this match.
