SM
| Current League A Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Panama | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Martinique | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Guatemala | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 5 | Curacao | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | El Salvador | 4 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 68.25%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Guatemala had a probability of 12.85%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.02%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for a Guatemala win it was 0-1 (4.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Argentina would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Argentina | Draw | Guatemala |
68.25% ( -0.43) | 18.9% ( 0.27) | 12.85% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 49.31% ( -0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.14% ( -0.86) | 42.86% ( 0.86) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.74% ( -0.85) | 65.26% ( 0.86) |
| Argentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.48% ( -0.36) | 11.52% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.59% ( -0.78) | 36.41% ( 0.78) |
| Guatemala Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.73% ( -0.29) | 44.27% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.65% ( -0.24) | 80.35% ( 0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Argentina | Draw | Guatemala |
| 2-0 @ 11.9% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 11.02% ( 0.26)2-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 8.58% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 4.64% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 3.78% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 2.85% ( -0.06)5-0 @ 2% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.61% Total : 68.24% | 1-1 @ 8.98% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 5.1% ( 0.19)2-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.87% Total : 18.9% | 0-1 @ 4.16% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 3.66% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 1.69% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 1.28% Total : 12.85% |
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