Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bangladesh win with a probability of 43.09%. A win for Mongolia had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bangladesh win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Mongolia win was 0-1 (9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
