SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Italy | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 8 | -10 | 8 |
| 5 | Malta | 8 | -18 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 56.87%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Malta had a probability of 18.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.43%) and 1-2 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Malta win it was 1-0 (6.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Malta | Draw | Slovenia |
18.69% ( 0) | 24.45% ( -0) | 56.87% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 45.39% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.93% ( 0) | 55.07% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.67% ( 0) | 76.33% ( -0) |
| Malta Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.22% ( 0.01) | 43.78% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.06% ( 0.01) | 79.94% ( -0.01) |
| Slovenia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.74% ( -0) | 19.26% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.01% ( -0) | 50.99% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malta | Draw | Slovenia |
| 1-0 @ 6.97% 2-1 @ 4.74% ( 0)2-0 @ 2.88% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.31% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.07% Other @ 1.73% Total : 18.69% | 1-1 @ 11.47% 0-0 @ 8.43% ( -0)2-2 @ 3.9% ( 0)Other @ 0.64% Total : 24.45% | 0-1 @ 13.88% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 11.43% ( -0.01)1-2 @ 9.45% 0-3 @ 6.28% ( -0)1-3 @ 5.19% 0-4 @ 2.59% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.14% 1-4 @ 2.14% Other @ 3.76% Total : 56.85% |
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