SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 5 | 14 | 13 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 5 | Malta | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 63.33%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Malta had a probability of 13.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.84%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.43%), while for a Malta win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 4-0 win for Italy in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Italy.
| Result | ||
| Italy | Draw | Malta |
63.33% ( 3.53) | 23.06% ( -1.09) | 13.6% ( -2.44) |
| Both teams to score 39.25% ( -2.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.33% ( -0.13) | 57.67% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.57% ( -0.1) | 78.43% ( 0.1) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.16% ( 1.25) | 17.84% ( -1.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 51.4% ( 2.1) | 48.6% ( -2.1) |
| Malta Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.77% ( -3.64) | 52.23% ( 3.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 13.85% ( -2.5) | 86.15% ( 2.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Italy | Draw | Malta |
| 1-0 @ 16.06% ( 0.71) 2-0 @ 13.84% ( 1.13)2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.19)3-0 @ 7.95% ( 0.93)3-1 @ 5.17% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.52)4-1 @ 2.23% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.15)5-0 @ 1.18% ( 0.22)Other @ 2.81% Total : 63.33% | 1-1 @ 10.43% ( -0.65) 0-0 @ 9.32% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 2.92% ( -0.39)Other @ 0.39% Total : 23.06% | 0-1 @ 6.05% ( -0.64) 1-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.61)0-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.45)Other @ 2.2% Total : 13.6% |
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