SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nepal win with a probability of 41.72%. A win for Bangladesh had a probability of 35.14% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nepal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.59%) and 2-0 (5.62%). The likeliest Bangladesh win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nepal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nepal | Draw | Bangladesh |
41.72% ( 0.02) | 23.14% ( -0.01) | 35.14% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 64.41% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.09% ( 0.03) | 36.91% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.91% ( 0.03) | 59.09% ( -0.02) |
| Nepal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.8% ( 0.02) | 18.2% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.8% ( 0.03) | 49.2% ( -0.03) |
| Bangladesh Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.74% ( 0.01) | 21.26% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.83% ( 0.01) | 54.18% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nepal | Draw | Bangladesh |
| 2-1 @ 8.7% 1-0 @ 6.59% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.62% 3-1 @ 4.94% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.82% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.19% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.1% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.63% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.36% ( 0)Other @ 3.78% Total : 41.72% | 1-1 @ 10.2% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.73% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.87% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.97% ( 0)Other @ 0.36% Total : 23.14% | 1-2 @ 7.9% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.64% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.08% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.48% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.39% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.58% 2-4 @ 1.35% ( 0)0-4 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.81% Total : 35.14% |
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