SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Caledonia win with a probability of 45.47%. A win for Vanuatu had a probability of 31.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Caledonia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.6%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Vanuatu win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Caledonia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New Caledonia | Draw | Vanuatu |
45.47% ( -0.97) | 23.4% ( -0.06) | 31.12% ( 1.03) |
| Both teams to score 61.86% ( 0.8) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.39% ( 0.8) | 39.6% ( -0.8) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.05% ( 0.83) | 61.95% ( -0.83) |
| New Caledonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.24% ( -0.07) | 17.75% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.56% ( -0.12) | 48.43% ( 0.12) |
| Vanuatu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.21% ( 1.04) | 24.78% ( -1.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.64% ( 1.42) | 59.35% ( -1.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| New Caledonia | Draw | Vanuatu |
| 2-1 @ 9.17% ( -0.11) 1-0 @ 7.6% ( -0.31)2-0 @ 6.57% ( -0.28)3-1 @ 5.29% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 3.79% ( -0.17)3-2 @ 3.69% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.28% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.64% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.85% Total : 45.47% | 1-1 @ 10.6% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 6.4% ( 0.12)0-0 @ 4.4% ( -0.17)3-3 @ 1.71% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.39% | 1-2 @ 7.4% ( 0.15) 0-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 3.44% ( 0.17)2-3 @ 2.98% ( 0.14)0-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 1.2% ( 0.09)2-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.66% Total : 31.12% |
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