Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Caledonia win with a probability of 45.47%. A win for Vanuatu had a probability of 31.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Caledonia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.6%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Vanuatu win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Caledonia would win this match.
-0.97) 
1.03) 
