SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Denmark | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Peru | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Australia | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Russia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 38.58%. A win for Australia had a probability of 38.07% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.46%) and 2-0 (5.22%). The likeliest Australia win was 1-2 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| New Zealand | Draw | Australia |
38.58% ( -0.12) | 23.35% ( 0.07) | 38.07% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 63.99% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.39% ( -0.38) | 37.61% ( 0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.15% ( -0.41) | 59.85% ( 0.4) |
| New Zealand Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.11% ( -0.22) | 19.89% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.99% ( -0.36) | 52.01% ( 0.35) |
| Australia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.87% ( -0.14) | 20.13% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.61% ( -0.23) | 52.39% ( 0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| New Zealand | Draw | Australia |
| 2-1 @ 8.37% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.46% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 5.22% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.61% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.18% Total : 38.58% | 1-1 @ 10.36% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.71% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 4% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.35% Total : 23.35% | 1-2 @ 8.31% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.42% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 4.44% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.59% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.75% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.78% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.1% ( 0)Other @ 3.11% Total : 38.07% |
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