SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panama win with a probability of 59.59%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Nicaragua had a probability of 16.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Panama win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.06%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Nicaragua win it was 0-1 (6.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Panama would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Panama | Draw | Nicaragua |
59.59% ( -0.26) | 23.56% ( 0.04) | 16.85% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 44.64% ( 0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.68% ( 0.2) | 54.32% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.3% ( 0.16) | 75.7% ( -0.16) |
| Panama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.04% ( -0.02) | 17.96% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.2% ( -0.04) | 48.8% ( 0.04) |
| Nicaragua Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.41% ( 0.41) | 45.58% ( -0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.6% ( 0.32) | 81.4% ( -0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Panama | Draw | Nicaragua |
| 1-0 @ 14.05% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 12.06% ( -0.11)2-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 6.91% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 5.43% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.97% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.33% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.13% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.29% Total : 59.57% | 1-1 @ 11.04% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.19% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 3.72% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.61% Total : 23.56% | 0-1 @ 6.43% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 4.34% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.44% Total : 16.85% |
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