Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Nov 19, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Estadio Jose Alvalade

Portugal
2 - 0
Iceland

Fernandes (37'), Horta (66')
Palhinha (54'), Felix (84')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Bergmann Johannesson (28'), Dagur Thorsteinsson (32'), Thor Willumsson (46'), Berg Gudmundsson (54')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Portugal and Iceland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole looks at how Portugal could line up in their Euro 2024 qualification clash with Iceland.

Form, Standings, Stats

Portugal

All competitions

Last Game: Liechtenstein 0-2 Portugal
Thursday, November 16 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	9	32	27
2	Slovakia	9	8	19
3	Luxembourg	9	-7	14
4	Iceland	9	3	10
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	9	-10	9
6	Liechtenstein	9	-26	0

Iceland

All competitions

Last Game: Slovakia 4-2 Iceland
Thursday, November 16 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	9	32	27
2	Slovakia	9	8	19
3	Luxembourg	9	-7	14
4	Iceland	9	3	10
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	9	-10	9
6	Liechtenstein	9	-26	0

The pressure is off for both teams, so it should be an open and entertaining game of football. Iceland are capable of making it a difficult match for Portugal, but the home side have been so strong in this section, and we would be very surprised if they were unable to make it 10 straight victories. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 74.36%. A draw had a probability of 15.5% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 10.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.3%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.21%), while for a Iceland win it was 1-2 (3.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Portugal in this match.

Result
Portugal	Draw	Iceland
74.36% ( 0.05)	15.5% ( -0.02)	10.15% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 52.48% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.94% (

-0.01)

34.06% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.06% (

-0)

55.94% (

Portugal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.22% (

0.01)

7.78% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

72.35% (

0.02)

27.65% (

-0.02)

Iceland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.91% (

-0.06)

43.09% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.63% (

-0.05)

79.37% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Portugal 74.36%

Iceland 10.15%

Draw 15.5%

Portugal	Draw	Iceland
2-0 @ 10.93% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 9.3% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.2% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.56% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.83% 4-0 @ 5.94% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 5% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0) 5-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 2.55% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.11% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.29% ( 0) 6-1 @ 1.09% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.08% ( -0) Other @ 3.15% Total : 74.36%	1-1 @ 7.21% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.35% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 15.5%	1-2 @ 3.03% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 2.82% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1.19% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.09% ( -0) Other @ 2.02% Total : 10.15%