SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 61.43%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Slovenia had a probability of 16.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.31%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.39%), while for a Slovenia win it was 1-0 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Slovenia | Draw | Portugal |
16.71% ( 0.07) | 21.86% ( 0.01) | 61.43% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 49.33% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.14% ( 0.1) | 47.86% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.96% ( 0.09) | 70.04% ( -0.09) |
| Slovenia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.09% ( 0.15) | 41.91% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.64% ( 0.13) | 78.36% ( -0.13) |
| Portugal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.93% ( 0.01) | 15.07% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.41% ( 0.01) | 43.59% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Slovenia | Draw | Portugal |
| 1-0 @ 5.49% 2-1 @ 4.52% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 2.39% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.76% Total : 16.71% | 1-1 @ 10.39% 0-0 @ 6.32% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.87% Total : 21.85% | 0-1 @ 11.95% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 11.31% ( -0.04)1-2 @ 9.84% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 7.14% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 6.2% ( 0)0-4 @ 3.38% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.94% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.7% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 1.28% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1.11% ( 0)Other @ 2.32% Total : 61.43% |
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