SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 44.68%. A win for Tajikistan had a probability of 31.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.09%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Tajikistan win was 2-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Tajikistan | Draw | Russia |
31.42% ( -0.33) | 23.89% ( -0.13) | 44.68% ( 0.46) |
| Both teams to score 60.26% ( 0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.21% ( 0.45) | 41.78% ( -0.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.81% ( 0.45) | 64.18% ( -0.45) |
| Tajikistan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.34% ( 0.02) | 25.66% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.43% ( 0.02) | 60.56% ( -0.02) |
| Russia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.06% ( 0.38) | 18.94% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.54% ( 0.62) | 50.45% ( -0.62) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tajikistan | Draw | Russia |
| 2-1 @ 7.48% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 6.61% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 4.5% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 3.39% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.04% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.47% Total : 31.42% | 1-1 @ 11% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 6.22% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 4.86% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.89% | 1-2 @ 9.15% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 8.09% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 6.73% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 5.08% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 3.73% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 3.45% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 2.11% ( 0.06)0-4 @ 1.55% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.36% Total : 44.68% |
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