Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uzbekistan win with a probability of 49.54%. A win for Uganda had a probability of 25.38% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uzbekistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Uganda win was 0-1 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Uzbekistan would win this match.
