Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kashima Antlers win with a probability of 53.8%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 21.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kashima Antlers win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.8%), while for a Sagan Tosu win it was 0-1 (7.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kashima Antlers would win this match.