J1 League | Gameweek 23
Jul 14, 2024 at 10am UK
Ajinomoto Stadium
We said: Tokyo Verdy 1-2 Machida Zelvia
While Tokyo Verdy have been one of the most difficult teams to beat on their home patch, they now face the side with the league's best away record and are unbeaten in their last six matches on the road.
Additionally, the visitors completely outplayed this opponent in the reverse fixture, and while this match is unlikely to be as lopsided as the last, we do still feel Zelvia will come away with the points.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Machida Zelvia win with a probability of 44.58%. A win for Tokyo Verdy had a probability of 27.99% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Machida Zelvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (8.62%). The likeliest Tokyo Verdy win was 1-0 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Machida Zelvia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Machida Zelvia.
| Result |
| Tokyo Verdy | Draw | Machida Zelvia |
27.99% ( -0.16) | 27.43% ( 0.2) | 44.58% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 47.08% ( -0.66) |
| 41.96% ( -0.79) | 58.03% ( 0.79) |
| 21.28% ( -0.62) | 78.72% ( 0.63) |
| 63.54% ( -0.56) | 36.46% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 26.75% ( -0.57) | 73.25% ( 0.57) |
| 74.09% ( -0.37) | 25.91% ( 0.38) |
