After a tough couple of days, a home tie against newly-promoted opposition is exactly what Villarreal needed, and we expect them to get the job done here.
Almeria are high on confidence and should cause one or two problems going forward, but the hosts should be able to see this one through.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 68.49%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 12.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.22%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
-0.29) 
0.11) 
