Desperate to keep up with Real Madrid, dropped points are simply not an option for Barcelona in the weeks following their Clasico defeat.
Villarreal will make it very awkward for the home side, but their superior firepower should see them through to a narrow win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 62.84%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 15.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.67%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.19%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (5.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
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