Carlisle may have already had Burton's number this season, but the Cumbrians have only been on a downward trajectory since, and Burton have prided themselves on diligent defensive displays at the Pirelli Stadium.
With weekend fatigue also setting in, a classic should not be in store, but a solitary goal - likely to come the way of the hosts - could prove the difference once again.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burton Albion win with a probability of 40.82%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 32.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burton Albion win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (9.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
-0.41) 
0.58) 
