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League One | Gameweek 15
Oct 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Brunton Park
BA
Carlisle
2 - 1
Burton Albion
Gibson (53'), Garner (88')
Garner (77')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Helm (28')
Hamer (25'), Maamria (26'), Helm (36'), Lubala (77')

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Carlisle United 1-2 Burton Albion

Burton have been flying in recent weeks, moving from the relegation zone to the brink of the play-off spots almost in the blink of an eye. Carlisle, on the other hand, appear set to struggle this season, and we can envisage them falling to a third straight defeat on Tuesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 41.01%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 31.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (9.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawBurton Albion
41.01% (-0.767 -0.77) 27.07% (0.399 0.4) 31.92% (0.37 0.37)
Both teams to score 49.94% (-1.09 -1.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.74% (-1.45 -1.45)55.26% (1.451 1.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.52% (-1.203 -1.2)76.49% (1.207 1.21)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.5% (-1.069 -1.07)26.5% (1.072 1.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.3% (-1.441 -1.44)61.7% (1.445 1.45)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.95% (-0.485 -0.48)32.05% (0.488 0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.48% (-0.557 -0.56)68.52% (0.559 0.56)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 41%
    Burton Albion 31.92%
    Draw 27.07%
Carlisle UnitedDrawBurton Albion
1-0 @ 11.27% (0.28 0.28)
2-1 @ 8.52% (-0.154 -0.15)
2-0 @ 7.49% (-0.035 -0.04)
3-1 @ 3.77% (-0.188 -0.19)
3-0 @ 3.32% (-0.119 -0.12)
3-2 @ 2.15% (-0.137 -0.14)
4-1 @ 1.25% (-0.103 -0.1)
4-0 @ 1.1% (-0.074 -0.07)
Other @ 2.14%
Total : 41%
1-1 @ 12.83% (0.16 0.16)
0-0 @ 8.49% (0.467 0.47)
2-2 @ 4.85% (-0.155 -0.16)
Other @ 0.9%
Total : 27.07%
0-1 @ 9.67% (0.408 0.41)
1-2 @ 7.3% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.5% (0.162 0.16)
1-3 @ 2.77% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-3 @ 2.09% (0.034 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.84% (-0.084 -0.08)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 31.92%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Portsmouth 1-0 Carlisle
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Carlisle 0-1 Leyton Orient
Saturday, October 14 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Carlisle 0-2 Forest U21s
Tuesday, October 10 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Bolton 1-3 Carlisle
Saturday, October 7 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Carlisle 1-1 Peterborough
Tuesday, October 3 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Wycombe 2-0 Carlisle
Saturday, September 30 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Burton Albion 4-1 Bristol Rovers
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 0-1 Burton Albion
Saturday, October 14 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Burton Albion 2-1 Cambridge
Monday, October 9 at 8pm in League One
Last Game: Burton Albion 2-1 Wigan
Tuesday, October 3 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Reading 0-0 Burton Albion
Saturday, September 30 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Burton Albion 2-0 Everton U21s
Tuesday, September 26 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

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