Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 41.01%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 31.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (9.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Burton Albion |
41.01% ( -0.77) | 27.07% ( 0.4) | 31.92% ( 0.37) |
Both teams to score 49.94% ( -1.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.74% ( -1.45) | 55.26% ( 1.45) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.52% ( -1.2) | 76.49% ( 1.21) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.5% ( -1.07) | 26.5% ( 1.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.3% ( -1.44) | 61.7% ( 1.45) |
Burton Albion Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.95% ( -0.48) | 32.05% ( 0.49) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.48% ( -0.56) | 68.52% ( 0.56) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Burton Albion |
1-0 @ 11.27% ( 0.28) 2-1 @ 8.52% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 7.49% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.77% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 3.32% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.14) 4-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.14% Total : 41% | 1-1 @ 12.83% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.47) 2-2 @ 4.85% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.9% Total : 27.07% | 0-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.41) 1-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.5% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 2.09% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.76% Total : 31.92% |
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