SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 63.84%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Charlton Athletic had a probability of 16.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 1-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.27%), while for a Charlton Athletic win it was 1-2 (4.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Charlton Athletic |
63.84% ( 0.18) | 19.85% ( -0.05) | 16.31% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 55.14% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.29% ( 0.03) | 39.71% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.94% ( 0.03) | 62.06% ( -0.03) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.21% ( 0.06) | 11.79% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63% ( 0.12) | 37% ( -0.12) |
| Charlton Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.52% ( -0.12) | 37.48% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.73% ( -0.12) | 74.27% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Charlton Athletic |
| 2-0 @ 10.1% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.91% ( -0)1-0 @ 9.45% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 7.2% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 7.06% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.85% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.61% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.92% Total : 63.84% | 1-1 @ 9.27% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.86% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.42% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 19.85% | 1-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 4.34% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.22% Total : 16.31% |
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