SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.16%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 19.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.26%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Exeter City win it was 1-0 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Exeter City | Draw | Derby County |
19.84% ( 0.18) | 23% ( -0.07) | 57.16% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 51.48% ( 0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.08% ( 0.55) | 47.93% ( -0.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.9% ( 0.51) | 70.1% ( -0.5) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.67% ( 0.52) | 38.33% ( -0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.91% ( 0.49) | 75.09% ( -0.49) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.48% ( 0.16) | 16.53% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.73% ( 0.29) | 46.27% ( -0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Exeter City | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 6.07% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 5.24% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 1.68% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.51% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.5% Total : 19.84% | 1-1 @ 10.93% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.33% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.99% | 0-1 @ 11.4% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 10.26% ( -0.13)1-2 @ 9.84% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 6.16% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 5.91% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.06)0-4 @ 2.77% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.66% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.03)0-5 @ 1% ( 0)1-5 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.09% Total : 57.15% |
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