Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 68.03%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Lincoln City had a probability of 12.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.47%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.28%), while for a Lincoln City win it was 0-1 (4.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
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