While both sides are currently enduring poor spells of form, Lincoln have at least proven to be a tough team to beat on home turf this season.
In their last three EFL Trophy home games, Lincoln have won twice and drawn one match against Morecambe, who they subsequently beat on penalties to claim a bonus point in the group stage, and we think that the Imps will continue that positive run by claiming a narrow win over a depleted Accrington side.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Accrington Stanley win with a probability of 38.31%. A win for Lincoln City had a probability of 35.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Accrington Stanley win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Lincoln City win was 1-0 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
0.38) 
-0.47) 
