Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 42.86%. A win for Lincoln City had a probability of 30.22% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.72%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Lincoln City win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
0.66) 
-0.87) 
