SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a West Ham United win with a probability of 37.84%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 36.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a West Ham United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.35%) and 0-2 (6.33%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (9.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that West Ham United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | West Ham United |
36.21% ( 0.65) | 25.95% ( 0.06) | 37.84% ( -0.71) |
| Both teams to score 54.39% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.04% ( -0.21) | 49.96% ( 0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.06% ( -0.19) | 71.94% ( 0.19) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.29% ( 0.28) | 26.7% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.03% ( 0.37) | 61.96% ( -0.37) |
| West Ham United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.21% ( -0.49) | 25.78% ( 0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.27% ( -0.66) | 60.73% ( 0.66) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | West Ham United |
| 1-0 @ 9.09% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 8.13% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 6% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 3.58% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.43% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.16% Total : 36.21% | 1-1 @ 12.32% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 5.51% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.95% | 0-1 @ 9.33% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 8.35% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 6.33% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 3.77% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.49% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.46% Total : 37.84% |
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