SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 48.03%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 25.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.22%) and 1-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.47%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 1-0 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cheltenham Town | Draw | Derby County |
25.54% ( 0.11) | 26.43% ( 0.11) | 48.03% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 48.13% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.2% ( -0.32) | 55.8% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.08% ( -0.26) | 76.93% ( 0.27) |
| Cheltenham Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.72% ( -0.08) | 37.28% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.93% ( -0.08) | 74.07% ( 0.09) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.74% ( -0.24) | 23.26% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.82% ( -0.34) | 57.18% ( 0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cheltenham Town | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 8.56% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 6.16% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.02% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.39% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.72% Total : 25.55% | 1-1 @ 12.47% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 8.67% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.79% Total : 26.42% | 0-1 @ 12.64% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 9.22% ( -0.01)1-2 @ 9.1% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 4.48% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 4.42% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.61% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.72% Total : 48.02% |
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