Derby County's away matches are almost exclusively low-scoring affairs, so this one should be no different, even considering the disparity between the teams in the league table.
Given the fact that Cheltenham have beaten some decent opponents at home this season, it will not be easy for the Rams, who we predict to win by a one-goal margin.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 48.03%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 25.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.22%) and 1-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.47%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 1-0 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
0.11) 
-0.21) 
