SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 47.34%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Wigan Athletic had a probability of 26.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.52%), while for a Wigan Athletic win it was 0-1 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Wigan Athletic |
47.34% ( -2.64) | 26.49% ( 0.36) | 26.17% ( 2.28) |
| Both teams to score 48.47% ( 1.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.38% ( 0.29) | 55.62% ( -0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.22% ( 0.24) | 76.78% ( -0.24) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.5% ( -1.07) | 23.5% ( 1.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.47% ( -1.58) | 57.53% ( 1.58) |
| Wigan Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.35% ( 2.19) | 36.65% ( -2.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.57% ( 2.14) | 73.44% ( -2.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Wigan Athletic |
| 1-0 @ 12.47% ( -0.55) 2-1 @ 9.07% ( -0.14)2-0 @ 9.03% ( -0.7)3-1 @ 4.38% ( -0.21)3-0 @ 4.36% ( -0.49)3-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.13)4-0 @ 1.58% ( -0.23)Other @ 2.68% Total : 47.34% | 1-1 @ 12.52% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 8.61% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 4.55% ( 0.2)Other @ 0.81% Total : 26.49% | 0-1 @ 8.65% ( 0.41) 1-2 @ 6.28% ( 0.46)0-2 @ 4.34% ( 0.44)1-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.27)2-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.15)0-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.22)Other @ 1.82% Total : 26.17% |
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