Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 52.33%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.69%) and 0-2 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Bristol Rovers win it was 1-0 (6.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
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