SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 66.57%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 14.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Burton Albion |
66.57% ( 0.6) | 19.37% ( -0.31) | 14.06% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 51.13% ( 0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.79% ( 0.81) | 42.21% ( -0.8) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.39% ( 0.8) | 64.61% ( -0.8) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.21% ( 0.4) | 11.78% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 63.01% ( 0.85) | 36.98% ( -0.85) |
| Burton Albion Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.96% ( 0.1) | 42.04% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 21.53% ( 0.09) | 78.47% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Burton Albion |
| 2-0 @ 11.32% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 10.59% ( -0.21)2-1 @ 9.82% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 8.07% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 7% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 4.32% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 3.74% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 3.03% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 1.85% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.6% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.61% Total : 66.56% | 1-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 4.95% ( -0.18)2-2 @ 4.25% ( 0)Other @ 0.99% Total : 19.37% | 0-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 1.86% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.55% Total : 14.06% |
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