Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 66.57%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 14.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
0.6) 
-0.31) 
