Even though the Dons have been the more consistent side over the past few weeks, we believe Derby are well-suited to beat the visitors because they are sharp on set pieces, aerial duels and attacking down the wings, all things that MK have had trouble dealing with all season.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 62.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for MK Dons had a probability of 16.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.15%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a MK Dons win it was 0-1 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.
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