Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 54.4%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 21.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.41%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a Port Vale win it was 0-1 (7.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
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