Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 44.73%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 28.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (8.31%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
