Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 30.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Bristol Rovers win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
