Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 41.96%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 35.83% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.49%) and 3-1 (5.13%). The likeliest Notts County win was 1-2 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 5-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
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