We said: Notts County 2-1 Grimsby Town
This has all of the makings of a brilliant game, and both sides will fancy their chances of progressing. It would not be a surprise to see an away victory here, but Notts County have so much quality in the final third of the field, and we are backing Burchnall's side to edge a close contest to advance to the semi-finals.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 47.25%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 28.15% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.39%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 0-1 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.