Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 39.43%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 34.38% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (9.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Morecambe would win this match.
