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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 51.55%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 26.43% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.25%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 1-2 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Notts County | Draw | Gillingham |
51.55% ( -0.17) | 22.02% ( 0.05) | 26.43% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 63.37% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.88% ( -0.16) | 36.12% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.77% ( -0.17) | 58.23% ( 0.17) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.73% ( -0.11) | 14.27% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.95% ( -0.22) | 42.04% ( 0.21) |
| Gillingham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.91% ( -0) | 26.08% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.86% ( -0.01) | 61.13% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Notts County | Draw | Gillingham |
| 2-1 @ 9.48% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.25% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.05% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.15% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 4.58% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 4.14% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.23% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.59% Total : 51.55% | 1-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.37% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.72% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.34% Total : 22.02% | 1-2 @ 6.54% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 3.36% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.93% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.85% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 0.99% ( 0)2-4 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.29% Total : 26.43% |
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