Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 47.61%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 27.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.39%) and 0-2 (8.2%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 1-0 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
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