Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 43.42%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 33.65% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.58%) and 0-2 (5.79%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 2-1 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
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