Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 60.18%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 18.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.96%) and 2-0 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 0-1 (5.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
0.03) 
-0.04) 
