SM
| Current Group I Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Romania | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 10 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Israel | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Belarus | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 5 | Kosovo | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Andorra | 10 | -17 | 2 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Italy | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 8 | -10 | 8 |
| 5 | Malta | 8 | -18 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Andorra win with a probability of 45.65%. A win for Malta had a probability of 29.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Andorra win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Malta win was 0-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Andorra | Draw | Malta |
45.65% ( -0.71) | 25.22% ( -0.13) | 29.13% ( 0.84) |
| Both teams to score 54.43% ( 0.96) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.15% ( 1) | 48.85% ( -1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.05% ( 0.9) | 70.94% ( -0.9) |
| Andorra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.59% ( 0.1) | 21.41% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.59% ( 0.15) | 54.41% ( -0.15) |
| Malta Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.27% ( 1.14) | 30.73% ( -1.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33% ( 1.32) | 66.99% ( -1.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Andorra | Draw | Malta |
| 1-0 @ 10.14% ( -0.39) 2-1 @ 9.22% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 7.82% ( -0.28)3-1 @ 4.74% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.02% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 2.8% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 1.83% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.55% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.47% Total : 45.64% | 1-1 @ 11.96% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 6.58% ( -0.27)2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.21% | 0-1 @ 7.76% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 7.06% ( 0.17)0-2 @ 4.58% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.01% Total : 29.13% |
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