With Milito's men dealing with absences in defence, Sunday's outcome depends on how swiftly the hosts adapt to the Argentine's changes. We are backing the away side to nick a point at Arena MRV to extend their undefeated run against Mineiro to four.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 51.69%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 23.69%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
-0.05) 
0.06) 
