Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 37.04%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 34.26% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.7%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (11.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Vasco da Gama in this match.
1.36) 
-1.63) 
