Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 37.04%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 34.26% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.7%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (11.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Vasco da Gama in this match.

Result
Vasco da Gama	Draw	Atletico Mineiro
37.04% ( 1.36)	28.7% ( 0.27)	34.26% ( -1.63)

Both teams to score 45.67% (

-0.85)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.17% (

-1.01)

60.82% (

1.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.14% (

-0.76)

80.86% (

0.76)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.49% (

0.35)

31.51% (

-0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.1% (

0.41)

67.9% (

-0.41)

Atletico Mineiro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.68% (

-1.59)

33.32% (

1.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.06% (

-1.79)

69.93% (

1.79)

Score Analysis

Vasco da Gama 37.04%

Atletico Mineiro 34.25%

Draw 28.69%

Vasco da Gama	Draw	Atletico Mineiro
1-0 @ 12.12% ( 0.56) 2-1 @ 7.7% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 7% ( 0.39) 3-1 @ 2.96% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 2.7% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.94% Total : 37.04%	1-1 @ 13.32% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 10.49% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.65% Total : 28.69%	0-1 @ 11.53% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 7.32% ( -0.3) 0-2 @ 6.34% ( -0.32) 1-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.23) 0-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.23) 2-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.5% Total : 34.25%