Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 47.8%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 25.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.53%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
1.13) 
-0.43) 
