Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 38.38%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 33.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.07%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (10.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.
-0.54) 
0.03) 
