Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ternana win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ternana win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
1.45) 
-1.81) 
