Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 35.25%. A win for Estudiantes had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 30.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.94%) and 2-1 (6.85%). The likeliest Estudiantes win was 0-1 (13.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belgrano would win this match.
-0.11) 
0.1) 
