To score three goals against a side as disciplined and organised as Estudiantes have been throughout this competition is a big ask of any side, and we have a hard time believing Goias, who are tied for the third-fewest goals scored in the Brazilian top-flight this season (17), could find a way to unlock that defence on multiple occasions.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Goias had a probability of 34.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.04%) and 0-2 (6.88%). The likeliest Goias win was 1-0 (10.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.
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