SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 43.7%. A draw had a probability of 29.4% and a win for Belgrano had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.03%) and 2-1 (8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.16%), while for a Belgrano win it was 0-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Instituto in this match.
| Result | ||
| Instituto | Draw | Belgrano |
43.7% ( -0.04) | 29.4% ( 0.04) | 26.9% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 41.34% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.07% ( -0.13) | 64.93% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.16% ( -0.09) | 83.84% ( 0.08) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.33% ( -0.08) | 29.67% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.28% ( -0.1) | 65.71% ( 0.09) |
| Belgrano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.77% ( -0.08) | 41.22% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.24% ( -0.07) | 77.75% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Instituto | Draw | Belgrano |
| 1-0 @ 14.86% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 9.03% ( 0)2-1 @ 8% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.66% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.24% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.37% Total : 43.7% | 1-1 @ 13.16% 0-0 @ 12.23% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.45% Total : 29.39% | 0-1 @ 10.83% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.84% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.8% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.42% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.24% Total : 26.89% |
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