SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 68.32%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 13.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 1-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Toulouse win it was 1-2 (3.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Toulouse |
68.32% ( 0.05) | 18.11% ( -0.02) | 13.57% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 54.32% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.62% ( -0) | 37.37% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.41% ( -0.01) | 59.59% ( 0.01) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.02% ( 0.01) | 9.98% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.02% ( 0.03) | 32.98% ( -0.03) |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.35% ( -0.06) | 39.65% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.67% ( -0.05) | 76.33% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Toulouse |
| 2-0 @ 10.5% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.72% ( -0)1-0 @ 9.12% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 8.07% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 7.47% ( 0)4-0 @ 4.65% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.3% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.45% ( -0)5-0 @ 2.14% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.99% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.98% ( 0)5-2 @ 0.92% ( -0)Other @ 3.98% Total : 68.31% | 1-1 @ 8.44% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.5% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.96% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 18.11% | 1-2 @ 3.9% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.66% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.69% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.2% ( -0)Other @ 1.73% Total : 13.57% |
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